Thursday, March 14, 2024

Election Analysis based on unofficial results. Results will be certified by April 12, 2024

Prop 1 Hanging by a Thread

Wednesday evening’s update added 114,224 votes from Imperial, Kern, Lake, Mono, Napa, Orange, Riverside, Solano, and Tulare Counties, reducing Proposition 1’s passing margin by 24,824. Thus, it is passing by just 4,218 votes out of over 6.3 million cast.

Southern California Key Elections

In the race for Orange County Supervisor, current Supervisor Don Wagner beat Irvine Mayor Farrah Khan by a nearly two-to-one margin for the 3rd District. Because supervisorial races are technically nonpartisan, Wagner avoided a runoff by receiving more than 50 percent of the primary vote. WECA supported Wagner and opposed Irvine Mayor Farrah Khan. Khan led the effort for the City of Irvine to pass a PLA last year.

In Riverside County’s State Senate race (SD 31), WECA successfully kept PLA advocate Angelo Farooq from advancing to the run-off election in November in a district that leans heavily Democratic. Farooq had spearheaded a PLA at Riverside Unified School District last year. Farooq came in a distant third, with Democrat Assemblywoman Sabrina Cervantes the likely winner in November. 

In the Riverside County Supervisor races, WECA supported Democrat State Senator Richard Roth. Roth came in first place but did not get 50 percent of the vote so that he will run against former Democrat Assemblyman Jose Medina in November. Medina voted for a PLA in 2010 on the Riverside Community College District construction. He ran for State Assembly the next year, and his fellow board member Mark Takano ran for Congress. In the 3rd Supervisorial District, WECA supported Democrat Riverside County Supervisor 3rd Supervisorial Chuck Washington. Washington avoided a runoff by receiving more than 50 percent of the primary vote.

In Riverside City races, WECA supported Riverside Mayor Patricia Lock Dawson’s reelection. If the current results hold, the merit shop could pick up two more supporters on the Riverside City Council! Steven Robillard holds a 500-vote lead in Ward 3, and Sean Mill holds a 149-vote lead over Ward 5 Councilwoman Gaby Plascencia.

Three San Bernardino City Council incumbents were defeated, with Ben Reynoso, Kimberly Calvin, and Damon Alexander losing in last Tuesday’s election. Juan Figueroa cruised to reelection with 60 percent of the vote in Ward 3. He appears to have won outright. WECA supported Figueroa and Damon Alexander. Ben Reynoso had voted for the PLA at the City of San Bernardino. 

Assembly District 75: WECA supported Republican candidates Andrew Hayes and Carl DeMaio. DeMaio has received over 40 percent of the vote and will move on to the November runoff. Hayes is leading in an extremely tight battle with Democrat Kevin Juza for the second spot in the November runoff, with late counts trending in Hayes' favor.

Central Valley Key Elections

CA20 is heading to a November runoff to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Assemblymember Vince Fong leads all voters into November and will face Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux to fill the vacancy.

Tulare County Supervisor D1: WECA-supported Incumbent County Supervisor Larry Micari won the March election outright with over 60 percent of the vote. His opponent was Joe Soria, brother of Assemblymember Soria, who was part of passing the Fresno City PLA before heading up to Sacramento. While Soria outraised Micari 2-1, this money did not move county voters.

Fresno County Supervisor D3: Heading to November runoff. Incumbent Sal Quintero is “friendly” compared to some of his opponents who passed/support the Fresno City PLA. Quintero won the primary and will be in the runoff against City Councilmember Luis Chavez. City Councilmember Miguel Arias, a strong proponent of PLAs, did not make it into the top two.

California State Assembly District 8: Heading to November runoff. Former Congressman George Radanovich is leading the way and will make the November runoff. It is an extremely tight race for second with young Republican David Tangipa holding a slim margin over Democrat Caleb Helsel with ballots still to be counted. 

In CA22, the AP declared Wednesday there will be a rematch between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas. Democrats had feared that they would be frozen out of the November race if Republican Chris Mathys had grabbed the second slot from the top-two primary. In the latest update by the Cook Political Report, the 22nd was one of four Republican-held districts rated as toss-ups just before the primary. No seats now held by Democrats are among the ten toss-ups nationally.

Northern California Key Elections

In Sacramento County Rosario Rodriguez is close to winning the Supervisor race in D4 outright. She is 387 votes above the 50 percent threshold to win without a November runoff. The next update will be released Friday afternoon. An estimated 83,886 ballots are left to count, but it is yet to be known how many are from D4.

In the race for Sacramento Mayor (a thankless job in the opinion of many), Flojaune Cofer, someone with no political experience, is running first with 17,547 votes. Second is former State Senator Richard Pan, who had 15,421 votes. The business community will almost certainly rally behind Pan (or whoever wins #2) to support anyone but “Flo.”

A political family’s strategy for both to land legislative seats failed. Wednesday, the AP declared that Assemblymember Carlos Villapudua, a Stockton Democrat, didn’t make the top two in state Senate District 5 and that Edith Villapudua, who switched from that race to seek her husband’s seat, finished third in Assembly District 13. This isn't good for business as in SD 5 former Congressman Jerry McNerney will almost certainly beat Republican Jim Shoemaker in this D+23 district. McNerney did well in Congress; between 2006 and 2012, McNerney's calculated net worth increased by an average of 335 percent per year! In AD 13 (D+27), Democrat Rhodesia Ransom will beat Republican Denise Aguilar Mendez. The couple’s primary defeats marked a major win for unions, environmentalists, and attorneys and a blow to the oil industry and others who spent heavily to protect the Villapuduas.

You can see the Secretary of State election reporting here.
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More Help on the Way for Striking Workers

Senator Anthony Portantino, who was currying favor with unionized voters, has reintroduced legislation to give strikers unemployment benefits. It doesn’t seem to have worked; he is coming in third to replace Adam Schiff on CA 30, losing to Assembly Member Laura Friedman (D) and Republican Alex Balekian. CA 30 is D+31 and voted Biden +46 in 2020, so Balekian is a long shot (TPIM).

But back to the bill. SB 1116 is a redo of Portantino’s SB 799, which the Legislature passed last year but Gov. Newsom vetoed. He said, in part, “Any expansion of eligibility for UI benefits could increase California's outstanding federal UI debt projected to be nearly $20 billion by the end of the year and could jeopardize California's Benefit Cost Ratio add-on waiver application, significantly increasing taxes on employers. Furthermore, the state is responsible for the interest payments on the federal UI loan and, to date, has paid $362.7 million in interest, with another $302 million due this month. Now is not the time to increase costs or incur this sizable debt.”

Senator María Elana Durazo, former head of the LA Labor Federation, introduced SB 1434, also wanting to give taxpayer money to striking workers. It changes the wage base from the current $7,000 to an undetermined amount until 2027, then to a higher undetermined amount until 2028, and then raises the base by an annual CLI. It also requires employers to pay .5% into an “Excluded Workers Fund” to pay “income assistance to excluded workers who are ineligible for the state or federal unemployment insurance benefits.”

But let’s not stop there with taxpayer largesse. Assemblymember Chris Holden amended his AB 1017 that, as introduced, would authorize any entity conducting an engineering and traffic survey to consider equestrian safety. The change would create the Striking Worker Emergency Homelessness Prevention (SWEHP) program administered by the Labor and Workforce Development Agency to make zero-interest loans available to striking workers to assist them in paying their housing costs. Holden is generous with OPM. Holden has taken at least $1.7 million from the Labor sector since he was elected to the legislature. That represents 30 percent of his total campaign contributions. But I bet that doesn’t surprise readers.
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No Statute of Limitations for You!

Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo, author of AB 2135, will extend the statute of limitations on complaints submitted to the Labor Commissioner from 18 to 24 months. The Labor Commissioner will be allowed to continue ongoing investigations beyond the statute of limitation for good cause. However, an open investigation will not be closed solely because the Statute of Limitations has been reached. Yikes. Schiavo was elected to the Assembly in 2022, unseating incumbent Republican Suzette Valladares by 522 votes. At the time of her election, Schiavo was an organizer for the California Nurses Association. She previously served as political director for the San Francisco Labor Council and as a legislative aide for San Francisco Supervisor Tom Ammiano. Raised in Sonora, she graduated from Sonora HS and studied American Multicultural Studies at Sonoma State University and labor relations at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. A 2016 Bernie Sanders delegate to the Democratic National Convention, she resides in Chatsworth.
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Mo’ Money

Once again, the price tag for California's bullet train is on the rise to the tune of twelve figures. The increased sticker price for the state's still-developing rail system came amid testimony by the bullet train's outgoing CEO, Brian Kelly, to lawmakers in Sacramento on Tuesday. Perhaps, even more unsurprisingly, the bullet train needs a cash infusion to complete the segment in the San Joaquin Valley, which is currently undergoing construction. Here are the other nuggets from Kelly's testimony.
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What Happened to 138 Local Ballot Measures Decided on March 5

California voters decided on 138 local ballot measures during the March 5 statewide primary. Below are the results from 11 notable measures:


 

Want a deeper look into each measure? See below:

• Fresno County Measure B: Voters rejected Measure B, which followed The U.S. Board of Geographic Names’ renaming of Squaw Valley to Yokuts Valley in 2023. In 2022, the California Legislature unanimously approved AB 2022, which required the word “squaw” to be removed from geographic feature and place names in the state because the term “... has historically been used as an offensive ethnic, racial, and sexist slur, particularly for indigenous women.”
• Measure B would have amended the Fresno County Charter to state that the Board of Supervisors is responsible for establishing or changing “geographic feature or place names within the unincorporated portions” of Fresno County that are not subject to federal, state, or other local government jurisdiction.
• Long Beach Measure RW: As of March 12, Measure RW was too close to call. “Yes” was leading with 52.74 percent. The measure would increase the minimum wage for qualifying hotel workers from $17.55 to $23.00 per hour on July 1, 2024, and increase each year until reaching $29.50 on July 1, 2028. Thereafter, the minimum wage would be adjusted based on inflation.
• Los Angeles Measure HLA: Voters approved Measure HLA, which will require Los Angeles to implement the Mobility Plan 2035, a transportation-planning guidelines document adopted in 2015. Specifically, Measure HLA requires Los Angeles to implement street modifications, such as wider sidewalks and bike lanes, anytime a street improvement, such as paving, is made on a street segment that is at least one-eighth of a mile long.
• Huntington Beach Measure 1: Voters approved Measure 1 in Huntington Beach. It requires voter identification and that ballot dropboxes be monitored for compliance.
• Huntington Beach Measure 2: Voters also approved Measure 2. It prohibits the city from displaying flags on city property without a unanimous vote of the city council, with exceptions for certain flags, primarily government-related ones.
• San Francisco Proposition B: Voters rejected Proposition B, which would have increased minimum police officer staffing levels. However, that would have been contingent on voters approving a new tax or changing an existing tax to fund those staffing levels.
• San Francisco Proposition E: Voters approved this second policing-related measure in San Francisco. It changes several policing policies, including limiting the amount of time that officers spend on administrative tasks; requiring written reports for use-of-force incidents only if there is a physical injury or an officer draws a firearm; allowing the use of drones in vehicle pursuits; and permitting surveillance and facial recognition cameras without the need for approval from the police commission or board of supervisors.
• San Francisco Proposition F: Voters approved Proposition F, which requires drug screening of individuals receiving County Adult Assistance Program (CAAP) benefits if the city suspects they are using illegal substances. It also requires the individual to participate in treatment programs (if the treatment program is free) to continue receiving assistance benefits.
• San Francisco Proposition G: Voters approved Proposition G, which declares it the official city policy of San Francisco to urge the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) to offer Algebra 1 to students by eighth grade. Proposition G has no binding effect on SFUSD. 
• Mountain House Measure D and Measure E: California will have 483 cities on July 1, 2024, as voters approved Measure D, creating the City of Mountain House in San Joaquin County. Because Measure D was approved, Measure E will also take effect. Measure E gave voters three options for how to elect their future city council. They chose at-large elections.

As of March 12, Californians have approved 72 of the 138 local ballot measures and defeated 22. These numbers only do not include 44 that were too close to call. Looking at California’s statewide primaries from 2016 to 2022, 138 was less than the average of 174 local ballot measures appearing on primary ballots.